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AI Inference Costs: Some Prices Fell, but Bills Can Still Rise

Some per-token prices fell between July and October 2026 and one rose, with a 100x output-price spread inside OpenAI alone. Here is the current ladder, why bills still rise, and a rule for routing tasks.

Toolbit AI - Team
4 min read
AI Inference Costs: Some Prices Fell, but Bills Can Still Rise

On October 21, 2026, OpenAI API pricing lists GPT-6 Luna at $0.10 per million input tokens and GPT-6 Astra at $10. Some per-token prices have fallen since July and one rose. What you pay depends far more on which tier you call and how many tokens you send.

What happened: some prices fell, one rose

Since July, Anthropic's Opus tier and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol got cheaper, while DeepSeek's budget model got dearer. Anthropic pricing shows Claude Opus 5.5 at $4 input and $20 output per million tokens, 20% below Opus 5's $5 and $25. GPT-5.6 Sol, listed in OpenAI's Cyber models table, fell from $5 input and $30 output in July to a promotional $4 and $20. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, which replaced V4 Flash, costs $0.15 input and $0.6 output off-peak, versus V4 Flash's $0.14 and $0.28.

  • Key number: OpenAI's flagship ladder runs from $0.50 to $50 per million output tokens, a 100x gap.
  • Who's affected: founders and PMs paying API bills, especially for agents and background features.
  • What to do: recheck your model per task, and move simple work to a cheap tier.

Over time the decline is steep. Epoch AI's price trends find that the price of reaching a given performance level falls "from 9x to 900x per year", depending on the milestone.

The same task costs up to 100x more depending on tier

GPT-6 Astra's $50 per million output tokens is 100x GPT-6 Luna's $0.50, and Claude Opus 5.5's $20 is 40x Haiku 5.5's $0.50.

Each row shows the vendor's standard list price per million tokens, checked October 21, 2026, next to the July price where research confirms a change. Use the LLM pricing tracker for models not listed here.

ModelJuly 2026Now (input / output per 1M tokens)Tier
GPT-6 Astranot recorded$10 / $50OpenAI top flagship
GPT-6.1 Solnot recorded$2 / $10OpenAI middle
GPT-6 Lunanot recorded$0.10 / $0.50OpenAI cheapest
Claude Opus 5.5Opus 5: $5 / $25$4 / $20Anthropic Opus tier
Claude Sonnet 5.5not recorded$2 / $10Anthropic middle
Claude Haiku 5.5not recorded$0.10 / $0.50Anthropic cheapest, prompts up to 100,000 tokens
Kimi K3$3 / $15 (unchanged)$3 / $15Kimi flagship
Grok 4.7Grok 4.5 (price not confirmed)$2 / $6 (labels unconfirmed)xAI
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashV4 Flash: $0.14 / $0.28$0.15 / $0.6 off-peakDeepSeek budget
GPT-6 Astra's $50 output price is 100 times GPT-6 Luna's $0.50, and Haiku 5.5 matches Luna at the bottom

DeepSeek charges double during peak hours, which run 01:00–04:00 and 06:00–10:00 UTC on weekdays.

Why bills still rise when tokens get cheaper

Bills can rise even as tokens get cheaper, because the bill is price per token times tokens used, and usage can outrun price cuts. If the price per token falls 4x while your feature's token use grows 10x, the bill ends up 2.5x larger.

Tier choice alone can move the bill 100x. Twenty million output tokens a day cost $10 on GPT-6 Luna and $1,000 on GPT-6 Astra. Over 30 days that is $300 versus $30,000 for the same volume.

CloudZero, which sells cloud cost tools, takes the vendor view: "Prices keep falling. Bills keep rising." It also claims routing saves 60-90%, a vendor figure we haven't checked.

Route by task: a decision rule

Match the tier to the job, then cut repeat input with caching. On OpenAI's page, cached input is 90% cheaper than fresh input on both Luna and Astra.

  1. Extraction, tagging, short replies: start on GPT-6 Luna, Claude Haiku 5.5 or DeepSeek V4.1 Flash.
  2. Drafting and routine coding: use a middle tier such as GPT-6.1 Sol or Claude Sonnet 5.5.
  3. Hard reasoning a person will act on: pay for Astra or Opus 5.5, and only there.
  4. Batch jobs on DeepSeek: schedule them outside peak hours to pay half.
  5. By November 21, 2026: if you use GPT-5.6 Sol (now $4 input / $20 output on OpenAI's Cyber models table), recheck its price; OpenAI says the promotional pricing runs "at least through" that date.

Before you switch, run your own prompts through the price check tool and compare LLM inference tools.

What's still unconfirmed

  • GPT-5.6 Terra and Luna prices. The earlier figures no longer appear on OpenAI's current pricing page.
  • Grok 4.7's input and output split. xAI's page lists $2 and $6 per million tokens, but our extract didn't label them.
  • Routing savings. The 60-90% figure is CloudZero's claim, not an independent measurement.
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